• by Wayne Friedman , November 12, 2007

A massive inventory crunch on network television is forcing some advertisers into the unusual position of purchasing inventory now for the second quarter of 2008, according to media agency executives.

Typically, TV advertisers would be looking at making first-quarter scatter buys now, with two months left in the fourth quarter.

But with ominous signs of a long-term writers' strike on top of already limited commercial inventory available in the fourth quarter--and for the first couple of weeks in the first quarter--marketers are somewhat frantically jumping ahead in securing scatter deals starting on March 1.

"The level of uncertainty in programming and purchasing TV is perhaps at an unprecedented level," says John Rash, senior vice president-director of broadcast negotiations for Campbell Mithun, Minneapolis.

The big inventory crunch is due to last year's makegoods being spilled over into this season. On top of all this, this season's live program ratings on the networks are down a big 10%--which could yield more makegoods.

As a result, for this fourth quarter, some broadcast networks are charging a massive 50% or more for some programs over upfront deals that were made this past June.

And if that isn't enough--due to the prospects of a long-term writers' strike--many networks are already planning extensive rerun prime-time schedules starting in January. Media analysts worry that this too will bring down overall ratings, according to media executives.

"People are panicking a bit," said another veteran media-buying executive.

The executive notes that in the past, in more normal markets, advertisers would worry about paying slightly higher cost-per-thousand viewers (CPMs), concerned about staying within their media planning costs. In this marketplace, the media analyst says, this becomes less of a problem.

"It's no longer [a concern] about spending 5% more," says the executive. "The worst thing you can do now is not getting on the air."