While DVR will continue to see growth, total DVR consumption remains small relative to all TV consumption.
In its latest "On Demand" report, Interpublic Group's Magna says "by 2011 -- 10 years after widespread availability --- DVRs will be in approximately 35% of TV homes. Magna says "less than 4% of total universe TV consumption will occur on DVRs."
It does note that consumers have increased TV consumption because of DVRs -- by 10% for each viewer. This means that "DVRs do not necessarily negatively impact the TV industry."
The report written by Brian Weiser, senior vice president and director of industry analysis for Magna, says that 19.9% of TV viewed by 18-49 viewers with DVRs is time-shifted in prime time. Looking at full day, all DVR households, this comes to 9.1%.
Overall, DVR subscribers are estimated to grow by 2014 to 42% (51 million) of all U.S. households from 28% (32 million) as of the second quarter of 2009. Magna notes that the overall population and increases in TV viewing will outpace the DVR impact.
In surveying some of the biggest DVR players, the satellite TV operators lead the way. DirecTV now has 7 million DVR homes, and Dish Network is at 6.9 million. Among the cable systems, Comcast Corp. has 4.9 million, and Time Warner has 4.2 million DVR subscribers.
Magna says that in five years' time, VOD services will climb to 66 million homes -- 55% of all U.S. TV homes -- from the 43.1 million, 39% of all TV homes currently.
Broadband access -- another platform to view TV shows -- is estimated to reach 85 million homes in 2014, up from 71 million homes as of the second quarter of 2009.