• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, January 11, 2016

The first electoral polls of 2016 follow the trend we saw at the end of 2015. The early contests of Iowa and New Hampshire are increasingly close and difficult to predict in both parties. The GOP establishment continues to feel the pressure brought upon it by the popularity of Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz.

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont continues to gain on front-runner Hillary Clinton in Iowa while he still commands a slight lead in New Hampshire.

The first national Democratic poll of 2016, conducted by Fox News, shows a 15-point lead for Clinton. The trend is in Sanders’ favor as he polled 31 points behind Clinton in mid-December.

Early primary states show stronger signs of Sanders closing in on Clinton. Whereas Clinton had led Sanders by as much as 18 points in December, an NBC/WSJ/Marist Iowa poll conducted last week shows her lead collapsing to within the margin of error -- Clinton with 48% and Sanders at 45%.

Former Gov. Martin O’Malley remains in single digits.

The same NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows a relatively similar story in New Hampshire with a slight shift. Sanders holds the lead with 50% to Clinton’s 46%. Fox News, however, also held a poll in New Hampshire, which showed a much larger 13-point lead for Sanders.

Trump and Cruz hold 55% of the national GOP primary vote, according to Fox News polling. Cruz leads Trump in Iowa by four points, and Trump is way ahead in New Hampshire leading Sen. Marco Rubio by 16 points and Cruz by 20.

Cruz has started feeling the Trump heat on the “natural-born citizen” question and allies are starting to worry he may have peaked too early in Iowa.

The NBC poll cited above also looked at general election match-ups in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Sanders beats Trump and Cruz in Iowa, whereas Clinton trails Rubio and Cruz in that state, while leading Trump by eight points. Sanders handily beats Trump, Cruz and Rubio in New Hampshire, compared to Clinton, who trails both Cruz and Rubio there, as well.

Clinton  polls within the margin of error against Trump in the New England state.

The general election match-ups are troubling for the Democratic party. Assumed front-runner Hillary Clinton has a lot to make up in both New Hampshire and Iowa among registered voters. Democrats may start considering the fact that Bernie Sanders looks to be their strongest candidate against the top three in the GOP.