• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, December 3, 2007

In the first in a series of revised outlooks for the U.S. and world advertising economies scheduled to be released this week, Publicis' ZenithOptimedia unit predicts advertising spending will rise at a relatively healthy clip despite growing uncertainty surrounding the general economy. The gains, a 6.7% increase in global ad spending, and a 4.1% hike in the U.S., however, are being driven largely by incremental spending attributed to cyclical events such as the Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, China, the U.S. presidential election, and the European football tournament Euro 2008.

"We see these overriding trends being masked by the fact that we're coming up on a quadrennial year," Tim Jones, president-CEO of ZenithOptimedia North America, tells MediaDailyNews, adding, "Thank god for those effects. If you took out the quadrennial issues, then the growth would remain flat."

Jones says the Olympics would account for about $3 billion in incremental ad spending, and that the U.S. presidential elections would contribute another $2 billion over the next year. The European football would tournament would add $1 billion in incremental ad spending, principally in Europe, he says.

Without those stimuli ZenithOptimedia predicts the advertising economy would likely continue to lose steam, especially in light a downturn in the U.S. housing market and a global credit squeeze that have some economists fearing another recessionary cycle.

"It's been losing about one [percentage] point, year-on-year," Jones says of the expansion of the advertising marketplace in recent years.

Most of the underlying expansion has been coming from two distinct sectors: Online ad spending globally, and general ad spending in emerging markets in Asia and Eastern Europe.

"By 2010, China will be the fourth largest advertising market in the world and Russia will be 6th," Jones says.

Among the major media, the Internet continues to be greatest catalyst in spending, and is also grabbing increasing shares of global advertising budgets. In 2008, the Internet will overtake radio to become the fourth largest medium with 9.4% of global advertising share; and in 2010, it will overtake magazines to become the third largest medium with an 11.5% share.

"In the early days of the Internet, it was very much an information medium, and not a branding medium, but now with the move to video and the ability to download quickly, it's much more of a branding medium," Jones says, adding, "I think that gives us more confidence at how much this medium is going to grow."

ZenithOptimedia Worldwide CEO Steve King will officially present the agency's updated outlook this morning during UBS' annual media conference in New York, along side Universal McCann Director of Forecasting Bob Coen.