Social Media Sucked At Guessing Oscars

People love to predict things online, and in general, apparently for the joy of being publicly proven wrong. The Academy Awards are no exception, with social media users issuing all kinds of guesses for winners in various categories, and failing more than half the time.

Using data from Facebook, Twitter, Adobe and Hootsuite, Variety compared social media forecasts with actual winners and found that just 13 out of 29 predictions were on the money. For example, Facebook picked “American Sniper” for Best Picture, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Meryl Streep for Best Supporting Actress, and Richard Linklater for Best Director -- wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong again. However, Facebook users did correctly predict Julianne Moore for Best Actress and J.K. Simmons for Best Supporting Actor.

Similarly, Twitter chose “Selma” for Best Picture, Benedict Cumberbatch for Best Actor, Mark Ruffalo for Best Supporting Actor, and Meryl Streep for Best Supporting Actress -- wrong all the way down (Twitter didn’t have a pick for director). Twitter did get Julianne Moore right for Best Actress. Hey, one out of five ain’t bad -- actually wait, that’s terrible.

Variety noted that picks by online betting sites were far more accurate, with PredictWise crunching data from U.K. betting site BetFair to choose “Birdman” for Best Picture by 67% and its director, Alejandro G. Inarritu, by 57%.

Brands had a great night on social media, thanks in part to some stellar integrations with the ceremonies -- most notably Lego, which won the evening with the techno-anthem “Everything is Awesome” from the Lego Movie. The Lego performance generated 47,000 mentions on Twitter, according to Amobee Brand Intelligence, with 45% positive versus 14% negative. Meanwhile, Dove garnered 29,250 mentions across social media, at 91% positive versus 3% negative, largely as a result of its #SpeakBeautiful hashtag and campaign.

Separate data from MediaPost’s Digital Engagement Index, powered by ListenFirst, showed a couple of brands winning big increases in digital engagement around the Oscars. JC Penney saw a 244.7% lift in its digital engagement rating following its “Yours Truly” ad campaign and its social media posts promoting the Oscars Play to Give initiative, which benefited No Kid Hungry, Boys & Girls Clubs of America and Do Something.

According to ListenFirst, Apple scored a 92.8% lift in its digital engagement rating following spots promoting the iPad, one voiced by legendary director Martin Scorsese.

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