• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, November 2, 2023

Could the NFL be having TV commercial pricing issues? Not directly, according to executives contacted by TV Watch.

Media buyers and some reports surmise that some scatter pricing -- buying a TV commercial for a game, for example, just days before the game is televised -- could be seeing some softness.

This could be partly due to recent automotive strike issues, which slowed down production of cars. This would be the latest in the number of dings for automotive marketers starting with the chip scarcity in 2021.

One report suggests pricing is down as much as 5% -- which would be a rare occurrence. But veteran media agency executives counter that it is at best flat versus upfront deals set in the summer for NFL programming.

"It is a qualified 'soft' [market]," according to one executive. "The reality is the [NFL] ratings have been strong, really across the board," 

For some, the possibility of some weakness could be attributed to ABC Television Network’s sort-of-late decision to simulcast all “Monday Night Football” games along with ESPN.

The theory is that those newly added big broadcast NFL TV impressions resulted in a change in the supply-and-demand formula for advertisers: More supply against the same demand.

"So few ADUs [audience deficiency units], if any, are needed to be given out," says the executive. "Those go back into sale, thus 'softening' the market. It's not that there isn’t interest. There is -- strong interest. But the market in total is soft -- not a lot of new dollars working." 

Complicating some of this is the flip side of the picture: Broadcast networks not being able to offer much in the way of fresh scripted prime-time programming for the last six weeks or so -- due to the the writers' and then actors' strike heading into the new TV season that started in late September.

That would have meant that some veteran big brand advertisers were desperately seeking to buy some high-impact TV programming. The NFL would fit the bill, imperfectly -- football not really fitting every marketer's needed audience profile. 

Still, the market for potential new-ish NFL advertisers is small. Also, TV commercials in NFL games do not come cheap, with a price tag that can be $400,000 to $800,000 or more for a regular-season game depending on the NFL network/daypart.

Cost-conscious consumer packaged-good advertisers, for one, probably would not consider it to a large degree. 

And then there is this: While the overall TV ad marketplace has been slowly recovering, it is still in a tentative state, with nervous executives concerned about a possible recession coming in the next few months.

All this refers back to the scatter marketplace stagnant issues. As a consequence, not much new money is working overall for broadcast scripted/non-scripted prime-time or additional impressions now provided by highly viewed NFL programming.

Typically, as the season goes on, spending by traditional NFL advertising categories can build as competition among teams becomes more intense and interesting, moving toward the post-season.

All this is to say that we should expect the playoffs -- and of course the Super Bowl -- to continue to see strong million-dollar level TV commercial buys.

Estimates for this year’s February big event hit another record for a 30-second commercial -- just $7 million. Expect more of the same.

Until then -- pricing issues? There will be some happy NFL buying over the next eight weeks of the season for some.