• by Steve McClellan  @mp_mcclellan, December 8, 2013

ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 5.3% in 2014, reaching $532 billion. That’s an upgrade from the forecast that the Publicis Groupe agency network issued in September. The shop said it boosted its estimate after recent signs of stronger growth from markets like the US, the UK, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Australia and Mexico, together with evidence that Spain’s downturn is finally bottoming out.

In North America, ZO estimates a 3.3% gain in spending  this year with a forecast  of a stronger 4.6% in 2014, boosted by the Winter Olympics and mid-term elections. That will be followed by another year of 4.6% growth in 2015 and 4.1% growth in 2016.

Globally, the biggest growth driver will be mobile. “This is the first time in the past 20 years that a new platform is expanding overall media consumption without cannibalizing any of the other media platforms,” the firm stated.

“Mobile technology is creating new opportunities for marketers to connect with consumers,” said Steve King, ZO’s global CEO. “Combined with the continued rise of young, dynamic markets, this will spur healthy and sustained growth in global ad spend over the next three years.”

ZO predicts that mobile will contribute 36% of the new incremental ad spend between 2013 and 2016. TV will be the second largest contributor (34%) followed by desktop internet (25%).

By 2016, ZO added, mobile—defined as all internet ads delivered to smartphones and tablets--will account for nearly 8% of all ad spending, leapfrogging  radio, magazines, and outdoor to become the world fourth-largest medium.

Over the next three years smartphone penetration is forecast to climb from 37% to 64% while tablet penetration will jump from 9% to 16%.

ZO also projects that mature markets will grow an average of 3% between 2013 and 2016, while so-called “rising markets” will grow at 9% annually during that time. The latter, which now account for just over one-third of spending, will contribute nearly two-thirds (61%) by 2016.

ZO also identified what it said were six “youthful” markets—Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, South Africa, South Korea  and Turkey—that will provide the next big wave of ad spend growth. They’ll grow at an average annual rate of nearly 15% over the next three years. Their combined share of spending will grow from 7% to 16% during that time.