Analysts Boost 2022 Local Ad Spend Forecast, Especially For TV, OTT

BIA analysts have upped their overall U.S. local advertising growth projection for 2022 to $173.3 billion, or 11.4%, citing faster-than-anticipated growth in digital advertising and an increasingly strong political advertising outlook.

This past summer, BIA forecast $161.5 billion in local ad revenue for next year.

Total local television ad spend is now forecast to grow 28.4% to $21.37 billion, compared to a previous forecast of nearly 27% to $21 billion. 

TV’s growth will be driven by its large share of local political advertising, which is now forecast to hit nearly $8.4 billion. 

Over-the-top (OTT) local ad spend is now projected to jump by 57.4% -- surpassing mobile’s growth, as consumers continue to embrace streaming services. Previously, BIA forecast 2022 OTT to grow 40% to $1.64 billion. 

Fairbanks, Alaska, Augusta, Georgia and Tucson, Arizona are expected to be the top three strongest political ad markets for television. 

Mobile ($35.7 billion), direct mail ($33.4 billion) and PC/laptop ($32.1 billion) will continue to be the top three paid local media channels for 2022. 

Traditional media will retain a slight ad-revenue share advantage over digital media, at 50.8% ($88 billion) versus 49.2% ($85 billion).

"2021 has been a year of fluctuations," said Mark Fratrik, BIA Advisory Services senior vice president and chief economist, in announcing the revisions. “The first two quarters saw strong growth, with some stalling in Q3 once the Delta variant appeared late summer.”

BIA took pandemic concerns and inflation and supply-chain issues into account in its estimates, he said.

“Overall, we are bullish on ad revenue for 2022," Fratrik added.

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