In recent months, I've begun to receive a variety of predictive analyses offering various handicaps from Las Vegas oddsmakers to AI technologists that are interesting to follow -- but if you ask me, are no more reliable an indicator than the latest polls.

"He's essentially run an unopposed, over-the-top campaign," Democratic strategist Joel Payne quipped on Wednesday morning in anticipation of Mike Bloomberg making his first appearance in a Democratic debate.

The ad industry likes to grouse over the fact that the Big Two digital platforms -- Google and Facebook -- represent something like two-thirds of every digital ad dollar. But when it comes to digital political ad dollars, nearly that market share goes to just one: Facebook. That's according to a new forecast released this morning by eMarketer, which estimates Facebook will take nearly 60 cents of every political digital ad dollar during the 2019-20 political advertising cycle.

Alternative headline for those of you who don't speak Yiddish: "The IOU Caucus." Either way, Iowa just fumbled its right to be the official kickoff of the quadrennial presidential nomination process.