"The overall mix of advertising shifts possibly in favor of brand rather than performance," suggests GroupM's Brian Wieser, adding: "Isn't that an interesting observation?"
The upfront TV marketplace, including broadcast and cable TV nets, posted "modest" gains -- up 5.8% to $20.1 billion, according to estimates from Media Dynamics. While broadcast and cable nets grew
similarly in volume -- up 6.4% (to $9.9 billion) and 5.2% (to $10.2 billion), respectively -- broadcast showed strength when it comes to prime-time 30-second commercials in terms of the
cost-per-thousand (CPM) viewers.
Signaling a wider macro-view of a possible slowdown in advertising, traditional TV-based media companies' stock prices declined sharply after Snap said on Tuesday it is seeing a sharp deceleration of
its digital ad revenues. MoffettNathanson Research senior research analyst/co-founder Michael Nathanson says there are some concerns that Q2 may end a bit soft. Many companies sank to new 52-week
The study comes as a perfect storm of developments have led up to a Babel-like 2022-23 upfront marketplace, in which a variety of "alternate" and unaccredited currencies are expected to be used.
Legacy TV has seen higher "effective" cost-per-thousand prices for deals in the TV upfront ad markets over the last three TV seasons, according to Standard Media Index -- but with lower total upfront
ad spend in key dayparts. The current TV season is now averaging $55,000 for a 30-second commercial unit, down from $59,000 from the previous TV season (2020-2021).
Upfront buys will also be about evenly divided among CTV-first, linear-first and combined, according to a new survey from Advertiser Perceptions and The Trade Desk.
Shimmel says the industry has faced challenges "trying to forecast, using a Nielsen data set and Nielsen panel size that was too small to reflect the fragmentation of the industry."
"Alternative currency is not just a question of research and methodology. It's about operationalizing it."
It's unclear whether the RFP is related to the ANA's "Cross-Media Measurement initiative," which it said would pilot a new "virtual people ID" methodology developed by Comscore by the end of this
Hulu is forecast to hit $3.13 billion in 2021, with YouTube at $2.54 billion and Roku at $1.58 billion, according to eMarketer.
The growth of CTV media deals may be having a major effect on business in terms of pricing and when to place messaging. Brand TV marketers have also shifted 20% to 25% of their budgets to streamers.
MoffettNathanson estimates Q4 TV advertising will be down 1% versus the same period a year ago, largely due to slower scatter TV advertising sales.
Nielsen has had other longstanding issues with marketers and media, such as measuring the full impact of cross-platforms' media impressions and associated advertising data.
This year, as the world is inching back to normal, COVID production schedules are delaying several pilots until later this summer (although I have seen a few). So, while I had planned to include my
predictions of new series hits and misses in this report, that will have to wait until more pilots are available. In lieu of that, this week's report will focus exclusively on how to evaluate the
success potential of new series pilots. In the 40 years or so I've been analyzing the television landscape, the benchmark of success for a new broadcast series has continually shifted, with the bar
gradually getting lower and lower.
Fox Corp. has now finished its upfront deals at "unprecedented" business revenue levels, with 20% gains in cost-per-thousand viewer pricing for its linear TV business and higher overall revenues,
similar to other network groups.
The company is starting a "Pricing Intelligence Suite" showing comparison of advertising CPMs for linear and digital media.
For insiders at media agencies, networks, and advertisers (as well as tv analysts like me), the upfront season has placed thoughts of September squarely into May and June. In this week's edition, I
raise -- and hopefully answer -- the fundamental question: Do the upfronts still matter?
Prior to the 2020-21 TV season, I released an annual report examining the impact of pre-season buzz on new TV shows. Each time my conclusion has been the same: despite some notable exceptions, there
is no correlation between the level of pre-season buzz a show receives and whether it becomes successful once it premieres. In this week's edition, I provide a post-pandemic update, but here's a
little background: Until the early-2000s, the broadcast networks almost exclusively aired repeats during the summer and there was virtually no television-based news other than previewing new fall
series - which would typically begin right after the network upfront presentations in late May, and continue unabated through the start of the new season in late September. There was ample time to
create buzz for the fall TV shows. That was before cable networks aired numerous original scripted series during those months, before the broadcast networks started airing summer reality, game shows,
and limited-run series, and before the advent of streaming services.
A Standard Media Index analysis of national TV ad spending by type of media buy -- upfront, scatter and direct-response -- reveals a pattern of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic-related ad recession
of 2020. While the national TV ad market collapsed in Q2 like many other media options -- especially non-digital "linear" ones -- it has begun to rebound in the Q1 of this year -- especially for
By one important measure -- the premium advertisers pay to buy short-term scatter advertising vs. what they paid in the upfront -- demand for network advertising inventory appears to have rebounded.
In this week's edition I offer some wide-ranging thoughts to set the stage for this year's marketplace.
As field agents servicing Nielsen's TV panel stopped entering homes, the VAB says this led to sharp "under-counting of overall TV use."
Roughly eight to nine episodes have aired among the top 20 prime-time scripted entertainment shows. A year ago, 17-18 episodes had run.
Nearly 60% of TV advertisers are making less traditional TV upfront commitments for 2021.
Following what could be the most uncertain and protracted network upfront ad sales season, Media Dynamics has released official estimates for the 2020-21 season, calculating that total prime-time ad
sales fell 14.8% from what was bought in the 2019-20 upfront sales season. However, after factoring for about $2.87 billion in cancellations of 2019-20 upfront ad commitments, Media Dynamics notes
that 2020-21's prime-time take is only down 2.0% -- so far.
Even with advertising remaining "strong" since the movie theater industry's restart, National CineMedia is projected to see lower revenue this year and next, according to a new analyst estimate --
down from an earlier projection of $170 million for 2020 and $365 million for 2021.
On the heels of recent news that apex TV advertiser Procter & Gamble no longer considers the upfront vital, Advertiser Perceptions released findings of a survey of major advertisers and agencies
indicating that while some reforms are definitely desired, the upfront still is an important way to buy and sell media.
In what could be an anathema for the 2020-21 upfront and other long-term media-buying decisions, U.S. ad execs say the average lead time for their media plans has been cut nearly in half since the
COVID-19 pandemic hit. The average amount of time for U.S. media plans has fallen to just 2.3 months post-pandemic vs. 4.2 months pre-pandemic, according to the most recent wave of tracking surveys
conducted among advertisers and agency executives by Advertiser Perceptions.
The U.S. ad market had another steep decline in May, falling 31% from the same month a year ago, according to the latest data from the U.S. Ad Market Tracker. May follows a 35% decline in April, and
an 11% decline in March, indicating that demand for advertising may not yet have hit bottom. The tracker, a collaboration of MediaPost and Standard Media Index, is based on the change in a composite
index value of all the media-buying data processed and modeled by SMI from the major agency holding companies.
At a time when many on both the supply and demand side are trying to get a handle on the 2020-21 network upfront ad marketplace or whether there will even be one, eMarketer has weighed in with a
revised forecast projecting the volume of ad spending will decline by a third vs. its previous estimates. Its new estimates project the 2020-21 upfront marketplace for broadcast and cable TV networks
will total $14.78 billion, down from its previous estimate last year of $21.64 billion.