Curated Guide to Research
MediaPost's comprehensive guide to current research in the marketplace.
Search results for "upfront"
- Hulu is forecast to hit $3.13 billion in 2021, with YouTube at $2.54 billion and Roku at $1.58 billion, according to eMarketer.
- The growth of CTV media deals may be having a major effect on business in terms of pricing and when to place messaging. Brand TV marketers have also shifted 20% to 25% of their budgets to streamers.
- MoffettNathanson estimates Q4 TV advertising will be down 1% versus the same period a year ago, largely due to slower scatter TV advertising sales.
- Nielsen has had other longstanding issues with marketers and media, such as measuring the full impact of cross-platforms' media impressions and associated advertising data.
- This year, as the world is inching back to normal, COVID production schedules are delaying several pilots until later this summer (although I have seen a few). So, while I had planned to include my predictions of new series hits and misses in this report, that will have to wait until more pilots are available. In lieu of that, this week's report will focus exclusively on how to evaluate the success potential of new series pilots. In the 40 years or so I've been analyzing the television landscape, the benchmark of success for a new broadcast series has continually shifted, with the bar gradually getting lower and lower.
- Fox Corp. has now finished its upfront deals at "unprecedented" business revenue levels, with 20% gains in cost-per-thousand viewer pricing for its linear TV business and higher overall revenues, similar to other network groups.
- The company is starting a "Pricing Intelligence Suite" showing comparison of advertising CPMs for linear and digital media.
- For insiders at media agencies, networks, and advertisers (as well as tv analysts like me), the upfront season has placed thoughts of September squarely into May and June. In this week's edition, I raise -- and hopefully answer -- the fundamental question: Do the upfronts still matter?
- Prior to the 2020-21 TV season, I released an annual report examining the impact of pre-season buzz on new TV shows. Each time my conclusion has been the same: despite some notable exceptions, there is no correlation between the level of pre-season buzz a show receives and whether it becomes successful once it premieres. In this week's edition, I provide a post-pandemic update, but here's a little background: Until the early-2000s, the broadcast networks almost exclusively aired repeats during the summer and there was virtually no television-based news other than previewing new fall series - which would typically begin right after the network upfront presentations in late May, and continue unabated through the start of the new season in late September. There was ample time to create buzz for the fall TV shows. That was before cable networks aired numerous original scripted series during those months, before the broadcast networks started airing summer reality, game shows, and limited-run series, and before the advent of streaming services.
- A Standard Media Index analysis of national TV ad spending by type of media buy -- upfront, scatter and direct-response -- reveals a pattern of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic-related ad recession of 2020. While the national TV ad market collapsed in Q2 like many other media options -- especially non-digital "linear" ones -- it has begun to rebound in the Q1 of this year -- especially for upfront.
- By one important measure -- the premium advertisers pay to buy short-term scatter advertising vs. what they paid in the upfront -- demand for network advertising inventory appears to have rebounded.
- In this week's edition I offer some wide-ranging thoughts to set the stage for this year's marketplace.
- As field agents servicing Nielsen's TV panel stopped entering homes, the VAB says this led to sharp "under-counting of overall TV use."
- Roughly eight to nine episodes have aired among the top 20 prime-time scripted entertainment shows. A year ago, 17-18 episodes had run.
- Nearly 60% of TV advertisers are making less traditional TV upfront commitments for 2021.
- Following what could be the most uncertain and protracted network upfront ad sales season, Media Dynamics has released official estimates for the 2020-21 season, calculating that total prime-time ad sales fell 14.8% from what was bought in the 2019-20 upfront sales season. However, after factoring for about $2.87 billion in cancellations of 2019-20 upfront ad commitments, Media Dynamics notes that 2020-21's prime-time take is only down 2.0% -- so far.
- Even with advertising remaining "strong" since the movie theater industry's restart, National CineMedia is projected to see lower revenue this year and next, according to a new analyst estimate -- down from an earlier projection of $170 million for 2020 and $365 million for 2021.
- On the heels of recent news that apex TV advertiser Procter & Gamble no longer considers the upfront vital, Advertiser Perceptions released findings of a survey of major advertisers and agencies indicating that while some reforms are definitely desired, the upfront still is an important way to buy and sell media.
- In what could be an anathema for the 2020-21 upfront and other long-term media-buying decisions, U.S. ad execs say the average lead time for their media plans has been cut nearly in half since the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The average amount of time for U.S. media plans has fallen to just 2.3 months post-pandemic vs. 4.2 months pre-pandemic, according to the most recent wave of tracking surveys conducted among advertisers and agency executives by Advertiser Perceptions.
- The U.S. ad market had another steep decline in May, falling 31% from the same month a year ago, according to the latest data from the U.S. Ad Market Tracker. May follows a 35% decline in April, and an 11% decline in March, indicating that demand for advertising may not yet have hit bottom. The tracker, a collaboration of MediaPost and Standard Media Index, is based on the change in a composite index value of all the media-buying data processed and modeled by SMI from the major agency holding companies.
- At a time when many on both the supply and demand side are trying to get a handle on the 2020-21 network upfront ad marketplace or whether there will even be one, eMarketer has weighed in with a revised forecast projecting the volume of ad spending will decline by a third vs. its previous estimates. Its new estimates project the 2020-21 upfront marketplace for broadcast and cable TV networks will total $14.78 billion, down from its previous estimate last year of $21.64 billion.
- The big surprise from the pandemic's initial impact on marketing is that it didn't necessarily collapse advertising -- especially digital -- and that it is actually accelerating the digital transformation of businesses, and potentially industries, GroupM's Brian Wieser said during an IAB webcast Thursday, adding that relative to the impact it will have on overall GDP, the effect on "advertising may not be as pronounced."
- Half of ad execs don't expect anyone to buy more than one quarter's worth of TV ad inventory in this year's upfront network TV ad marketplace, negating the very nature of the upfront.
- In another sign of weakening ad demand -- and a troubling indicator for 2020-21 upfront network TV ad negotiations -- the delta between upfront and scatter ad prices narrowed to its closest point in recent memory in April, according to a 'Media Daily News' analysis of data from SQAD. With just $17,218 separating the average scatter ad unit price from that of what advertisers bought in the upfront, April's ad pricing removes one of the major arguments for buying network TV ad time upfront: price protection.
- While it may seem like a given that the upfront network TV ad marketplace will likely be down in both volume and pricing this year, at least one analyst is predicting the disruptive effects of COVID-19 could be the last straw for sustaining TV's long-term market share and that the main beneficiary will be online media -- especially Google's YouTube, as well as the connected TV marketplace.
- Even before the COVID-19 pandemic tossed any idea of a normal fall TV season to the back burner, the value of the upfront marketplace was being questioned. In this week's edition, I assess whether there's even any value in holding the upfront anymore.
- The current network TV scatter advertising marketplace has become very flexible, according to top media buyers, and the outlook for the 2020-21 upfront may be one of the lightest ever in terms of the percentage of network ad inventory sold. That's the finding of "ad checks" conducted over past week with top industry executives by the equities research team at BMO Capital markets.
- Three-quarters of ad execs plan to cut the remainder of their 2020 ad spending by 5% or more due specifically to the impact of the pandemic. That's one of the findings of an annual survey of 40 ad execs representing more than $90 billion in annual ad spending, published this week by the equities research team at UBS.
- Linear TV networks' national tv advertising continues to slip in the wake of growing media competition -- especially in prime time -- dropping 5% for the 2018-2019 TV season from the previous year.
- With an average upfront prime-time CPM of $43.40, Fox is the priciest of the major broadcast networks, according to a five-year analysis of prime-time network CPMs provided by SQAD. The data delineated in this graphic shows the five-year trend line for the adults 25-54 demographic.
