Curated Guide to Research
MediaPost's comprehensive guide to current research in the marketplace.
Search results for "forecast"
- Local broadcast TV will see a modest 11% increase in 2024 to $23.8 billion, according to BIA Advisory Services, while local over-the-air platforms are forecast to climb 4.6% to $21.7 billion, from an expected $19 billion this year. Automotive advertising is projected to rise from its current doldrums to $192.6 million. BIA says this will be the largest increase since 2019.
- Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates and Sam Altman were among more than 20 business leaders meeting with senators this week. The first bipartisan AI Insight Forum is part of a series of gatherings to craft AI law.
- The U.S., which already accounts for more than three-quarters of the market, is set to outpace global growth, according to PQ Media's new estimates.
- Global ad spend is on track to grow 4.4% to $963.5 billion in 2023, rising 8.2% to more than $1 trillion in 2024, which will be the first year expenditures top the trillion-dollar mark, according to the World Advertising Research Center, with five companies responsible for the uptick.
- Scott Simonelli, CEO of audio research and analytics platform Veritonic, believes that as more people listen to audio and podcasts, ad dollars will shift in unexpected ways.
- Netflix says brands are now able to target media buys across its Top 10 programs. But still,1.5 million subscribers? Is that enough for brands to solve their reach and other issues?
- The wisdom of crowds theory says that if you total people's insights, the combined wisdom of the crowd will render forecasts that are close to actual outcomes.
- Messages about economic forecasts are mixed and muddled this year. Third-party data and research companies have divergent views on how consumers will spend money. McKinsey & Associates released data in June that suggests "optimism is trending upward, but spending isn't."
- The U.S. Ad Market Tracker rose 2.5% in May, the first expansion in 11 months. The expansion compares with the year-ago period that was only up modestly, and is the best May since Standard Media Index began tracking it.
- Underlying revenue will expand 5.4% this year, according to Brian Wieser's "Madison and Wall," outpacing a 2023 consensus ad-spending growth of just 4.3%.
- Amazon Prime Video will be just 12 million behind Netflix, and 43 million ahead of Dinsey+, per Digital TV Research projections.
- Winterberry Group research aims to provide greater insight into the analytics market, examining and defining the current and future state of marketing analytics, industry challenges and factors for success.
- "Traditional search," including paid and SEO, will grow to $256.5 billion -- or nearly three-quarters of that total -- while retail media will account for more than a quarter of the total (26.5%), according to a forecast from WARC.
- Live, linear TV continues to be challenged by viewership declines -- down between 14% and 20% per month, according to MoffettNathanson Research. Cable TV networks have seen significant viewership declines -- down 18% to 21% for each month -- using the Nielsen C3 ratings metric. These declines have steepened compared to earlier in 2022, where there were 13% to 17% declines for the first three months.
- Will TV marketers and TV programming execs need to make major changes for 18-year-olds -- the next generation of major TV users?
- MoffettNathanson forecasts NBCU and Warner Bros. Discovery will see declines in content spending this year while others will climb. Walt Disney will lead all big media companies, followed by NBCU, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount and Netflix.
- Full-year 2023 is projected to see ad-revenue results for major TV-based companies similar to 2022. Total domestic D2C streaming/virtual ad platforms are projected to rise 6.1% in Q4, while digital media ad results are virtually on par with TV -- anticipating just 0.8% growth. MoffettNathanson says in a report released Thursday: "It's the lowest level of growth we've seen since the Covid-impacted quarter of 2Q 2022."
- A MediaPost analysis of unweighted monthly Standard Media Index data, shows U.S. ad spending rising little more than 3% last year, far less than the agency holding company forecast consensus of nearly 10%.
- Based on a new report by technology research company Technavio, the global live music market is estimated to increase by almost $10 billion from 2021 to 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.85%.
- This most likely is the most anticlimactic Agency of The Year award profile I will ever write. That's because I called GroupM as our probable holding company-level entity of the year at the mid-year mark back in July, based on what it had already accomplished by that point. I added that it was GroupM's to lose, and challenged its peers to step up and prove me wrong.
- While AVOD platforms are projected to rise 27% to $9.6 billion this year, digital TV-video has been impacted by a drastically weaker scatter TV market. MoffettNathanson is lowering overall TV estimates for next year down 3.3% to $80.5 billion, and estimates national broadcast networks will be down 8% to $13.3 billion, with national TV cable networks 5% lower, local TV stations down 8%, local cable dropping 15% and syndication slipping 5%.
- "To you from failing hands we throw the torch for you to hold it high," Brian Wieser said, praising Kate Scott-Dawkins as GroupM's new chief ad industry forecaster.
- Magna projects a 4% decline in national TV network ad revenue to $38.7 billion for this year. AVOD, OTT and streaming platforms are forecast to see growth of 18.4% this year and 31.6% in 2023. Magna estimates all TV ad revenue globally will be down 3.6% next year. For this year, worldwide TV is expected to grow 1.7% to $172 billion.
- The slowdown in connected video devices is largely due to slower growth of video-enabled mobile phones, according to S&P Global Market Research, which projects streaming video-enabled smart TV sets will continue to rise over the next four years, while streaming media players and gaming consoles will see a decline.
- Long term, what's the plan for ads on local TV? Borrell Associates is estimating nearly flat results for U.S. local advertising -- up just 0.6% to $121.5 billion in 2023.
- Borrell Research on Wednesday released data projecting that local advertising will experience growth of a mere 0.6% next year.
- "The advertising environment is challenged as supply chain disruptions have restricted inventory for products leading to lower advertising spend in areas," writes KeyBanc's equity research team.
- GroupM's business intelligence team called out analysts and journalists for focusing on not-so-good news, while ignoring indicators of healthy ad growth: "It's almost like they prefer to report bad news."
- While monthly data through September suggests the beginning of a new U.S. ad recession, the big agency forecast units continue to project double-digit gains for 2022 and mid-single-digit expansions for 2023.
- A preholiday ecommerce survey from the analyst firm Baird Equity Research suggests consumers are prioritizing values.
