Long term, what's the plan for ads on local TV? Borrell Associates is estimating nearly flat results for U.S. local advertising -- up just 0.6% to $121.5 billion in 2023.
Borrell Research on Wednesday released data projecting that local advertising will experience growth of a mere 0.6% next year.
OTT spending is forecast to exceed $2 billion -- drawing strength from multiple business verticals, including political advertising. From 2022-2026, OTT will grow at a 14.3% compounded annual growth
rate, second to digital TV owned-and-operated streaming and website advertisements sold by local broadcast stations.
The political advertising estimate for 2022 is the highest ever for any political ad cycle, according to AdImpact -- 7% higher than 2020 and two-and-a-half times higher than the 2018 midterm cycle.
The average compounded annual growth rate over the past two years for OTT was 43%, which makes it the fastest-growing local media, followed by local digital radio, local mobile, local digital
magazines and local PC/laptop advertising. The top advertising local OTT category for 2022 is projected to be general services, at $337.2 million.
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BIA Advisory Services now estimates $167.4 billion for 2022-- $5.9 billion lower than the amount estimated in an earlier report.
When including all media platforms -- local broadcast, local cable/satellite, radio, digital and OTT -- Kantar projects political advertising could total $8.0 billion this year -- up from $7.8
billion in an August 2021 projection.
Nielsen has struck a deal with Vizio to add data from Vizio's 20 million TV homes through the TV set manufacturer's Inscape TV research business. Nielsen now has the rights from Vizio to integrate
Inscape data in both its local and national audience-measurement solutions. Nielsen says its TV panels will be used to "validate" what is missing in Big Data sets.
TV ad spend on AVOD platforms is forecast to grow 43% to $11.2 billion from $7.8 billion in 2021. MoffettNathanson expects the largest component of TV advertising -- national cable TV networks -- to
remain virtually unchanged, while broadcast networks will slip a bit.
Financial-services businesses will drive the growth in local mobile advertising.
In 2022, political advertising will hit another record total for broadcast TV -- totaling $3.8 billion for the midterm elections vs. $3.05 billion in 2018, BIA Advisory Services says.
NextGen base revenue is projected to be 22% of all local TV station revenue by 2022. This will boost the relatively stagnant revenue core outlook, partly due to competitive, fast-growing,
digital-first local media.
Despite heavy Nielsen spin -- on- and off-the-record as well as to its investors -- that accreditation of its ratings services doesn't actually matter, the consensus among some of its biggest
customers is that the credibility of its services have been tarnished by the Media Rating Council's suspension of both its national and local services.
Kantar's ad-equity ranking of media channels and brands found that online and mobile games showed the greatest improvement in consumer receptivity. Consumers find gaming ads more "trustworthy,"
"relevant," and "useful" as well as "fun and entertaining." YouTube, Google, and Facebook are still the most trusted social media platforms.
While only 5% of local advertisers believe they have become "over-reliant" on digital, three times as many local agency execs believe their clients have.
Digital media -- especially social and paid search -- dominate local advertisers' media mix, according to a Borrell survey of 2,811 local advertiser media buyers released today. Those also are the
media local advertisers say they are boosting spending for this year. Local TV advertising, both broadcast and cable TV, remain the largest average annual local ad budgets at $111,300 and $48,000,
respectively (see table at bottom).
A study of local ad agencies across the country by Borrell Associates found that 17% are now using TikTok -- "more than double" what Borrell found in its survey six months ago.
Although traditional TV platforms will decline this year, local TV stations' digital efforts will make some gains.
Changes in consumer behavior and attitude will drive shifts in media buying, from location-based targeting and search to out-of-home electronic billboards and fueling stations.
Marketers targeting ads locally have a new type of reference tool. Yelp and Zillow announced a partnership Wednesday naming the top U.S. metro areas for digital nomads, as the prospect of permanent
work-from-home agreements becomes more likely.
What would it mean to your media mix model if you bought people instead of channels? Building out your media campaign with smart data and custom modeling instead of working from the top down. Cadillac
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Local traditional media may see strong benefits. Several marketers at small and-medium sized businesses surveyed said they would "return" to advertising with a "shop local" message, Borrell Associates
finds, buying more advertising, increasing social media activity, and broadening their mix. Borrell's latest poll provides insights into January-March 2021 results as well as how marketers' budgets
look for the remainder of the year.
This year's increases won't be enough to wipe out 2020's losses. The ad marketplace won't grow larger than what was seen in 2019 until 2022.
In the wake of a pandemic-disrupted year and declining ad business, just one of the six major TV platforms saw an uptick in ad dollars in 2020: local TV stations' advertising.
At least two-thirds of agencies said they believe targeted forms of advertising such as OTT, social media and addressable had the most impact in 2020, according to Borrell Associates.
Local ad agencies typically work with larger and more sophisticated buyers that historically place their money with brand-building media. In 2020, that changed.
Ad spending in 2021 will be lower than 2019, when an estimated total $161 billion was spent, BIA Advisory Services says. Total U.S. local advertising this year is projected to be down 17% from 2019,
to a total $134.1 billion. BIA says it does not expect a full recovery until 2022.
Among the agency execs Borrell surveyed, 57% said budgets for OTT and CTV ad buys came from broadcast TV and 42% cited cable tv, with radio at 25%, print at 23%, paid search at 5% and social media at
Brands find it hard to scale multilocation marketing and maintain brand consistency, Forrester reports.