A few months ago I wrote a post in which I argued that 30-second and 60-second video ads, especially when they cannot be skipped, are a terrible idea because they are considered the most annoying ad format, and because I don't believe you need that much time to get your point across. This should be of great concern to publishers, because ad annoyance causes readers to leave and to be annoyed with the publication, not with the brand. Since that time, three things have happened that give me hope that I am not alone in my views.
The online publishing industry is in a state of major turmoil; the relationships that bind advertisers, publishers and readers are increasingly tense and adversarial. I believe that the ad-supported business model is the root problem of online publishing, which will destroy online publishing as we know it today.
In a recent post, I jokingly referred to consumers, publishers and advertisers as populations of predators and prey. The analogy reminded me of an area of mathematics known as system dynamics, which studies the behavior of complex systems over time. One of the best-known system dynamics models is the predator-prey model, an example of population dynamics models. The idea is simple: imagine a world in which only two species of animals exist: wolves and sheep. The wolves need other wolves to reproduce, and they must eat sheep to survive. The sheep need other sheep to reproduce, and in order to …
I was driving on 101 South toward the San Francisco airport last week when I abruptly took the Cesar Chavez exit and followed signs to Bayshore Boulevard. I had plenty of time before my flight back to New York left, and seemingly no control over where my car took me. I had to pull into the parking lot of 3240 Bayshore Boulevard again - 13 years since I'd last pulled out.
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