As transatlantic trade tensions heat up,
Netflix may be caught in the crossfire. The streaming giant could face new headwinds in Europe if retaliatory tariffs are imposed on U.S.-based digital services in response to broader tariff policies
initiated by the U.S., according to
a recent analysis by Laurent Yoon, an analyst at financial-services firm Bernstein. While Netflix has long
navigated complex local tax environments — including paying digital services taxes (DST) in the United Kingdom, France and Spain since 2019 — the possibility of sweeping new tariffs raises
questions about the company’s long-term growth trajectory in one of its most important markets. “Netflix is good for Europe (or so Netflix could argue),” Yoon said, pointing
to the company’s substantial investment across the continent. Between 2020 and 2023, Netflix poured $6.8 billion into European content and now partners with more than 400 producers across 11
regional offices.
Market-Leading Presence Netflix holds the top spot among subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services in Europe’s five largest markets — Germany,
the UK, France, Italy and Spain — well ahead of competitors like Amazon Prime Video and Disney+. In the Netherlands, Netflix commands a 100% indexed market share, nearly double that of its
closest competitor. This commanding position may act as a buffer if Europe moves to impose tariffs. As Yoon noted, “Imposing tariffs on American services would imply price
increases for the top three SVODs in these markets,” which could hurt local consumers more than the companies themselves. In short, European viewers may have few viable alternatives should costs
rise.
Tariffs Could Slow Growth But Not Stop It Despite Netflix’s strong foothold in Europe, the prospect of tariffs still carries downside risks. Bernstein estimates that
if tariffs are imposed and costs are passed on to consumers, the resulting price hikes could trigger higher churn and slow subscriber growth in the region. Currently, Netflix’s
subscriber base in EMEA is projected to grow from 101 million in 2024 to 120 million by 2026 — a compound annual growth rate of 9%. But if penetration plateaus in 2025 due to rising prices, the
growth rate could drop to mid-single digits. Similarly, Netflix’s Average Revenue per Member (ARM) in Europe is forecasted to grow at 5% annually through 2026. A tariff-related pricing
ceiling, however, could result in flat or even negative ARM growth. Bernstein’s models suggest ARM growth could fall to -2.7% annually under adverse conditions. “Combining the
effects on both subscriber and ARM growth, we estimate a potential downside of 10% to our 2026 EPS forecast of $36,” Yoon wrote.
For Now, Watch-And-Wait Approach Despite
these risks, Bernstein is maintaining its existing projections and price target for Netflix. The firm believes that given Netflix’s entrenched market leadership and content investments, the
fallout from tariffs — if implemented — may be limited to high single-digit downside to earnings per share by 2026. While the potential for tariffs remains speculative, Bernstein
expects to update its model only if meaningful measures are enacted by European regulators. Until then, Netflix’s European growth story continues — albeit under a cloud of geopolitical
uncertainty.